Year 2011 is a very tough for stock market players and there are only few places to hide due to high market volatility. This year is stock pickers market, very few stocks are outperformed the indices and front line indices stuck in a 15% range through out year. The top 10 best performing shares are shown in the following table.
| COMPANY |
PRICE ON
|
PRICE ON
|
CHANGE
|
52-WEEK HIGH/
|
|
Nov 25, 2011 (Rs)
|
Nov 25, 2010 (Rs)
|
(%)
|
LOW (Rs)
|
| IDEA CELLULAR |
95.65
|
69.90
|
36.80%
|
101 / 57
|
| PETRONET LNG |
154.65
|
117.00
|
32.20%
|
183 / 109
|
| APOLLO HOSPITALS |
618.35
|
483.00
|
28.00%
|
600 / 453
|
| GMDC |
176.05
|
139.50
|
26.20%
|
192 / 105
|
| HIND. UNILEVER |
375.20
|
300.00
|
25.10%
|
399 / 267
|
| DIVIS LABORATORIES |
731.65
|
634.00
|
15.40%
|
836 / 588
|
| ADITYA BIRLA NUVO |
887.20
|
783.85
|
13.20%
|
970 / 728
|
| ACC LIMITED |
1119.40
|
990.00
|
13.10%
|
1,229 / 935
|
| ASIAN PAINTS |
2941.75
|
2602.00
|
13.10%
|
3,338 / 2,418
|
| COLGATE |
982.75
|
871.00
|
12.80%
|
1,068 / 791
|
| BSE SENSEX |
15695.43
|
19560.25
|
-19.80%
|
20,622 / 15,716
|
| S&P CNX NIFTY |
4710.05
|
5883.95
|
-20.00%
|
6,177 / 4,708
|
The worst performing sectors so far this year are Sugar, Infra, Real estate, Banks and airline stocks.
Infrastructure companies are the worst among them lot of them lost more than 80% of their value. when we check top 10 fallen stocks most of them are from infra and real estate stocks. List of top 10 as follows…
| COMPANY |
PRICE ON
|
PRICE ON
|
CHANGE
|
52-WEEK HIGH/
|
|
Nov 24, 2011 (Rs)
|
Nov 24, 2010 (Rs)
|
(%)
|
LOW (Rs)
|
| GTL LIMITED |
36.85
|
415.00
|
-91.10%
|
430 / 35
|
| LANCO INFRA |
11.70
|
64.75
|
-81.90%
|
66 / 12
|
| GTL INFRA |
8.38
|
43.55
|
-80.80%
|
45 / 8
|
| IVRCL LTD. |
32.65
|
134.90
|
-75.80%
|
136 / 32
|
| GVK POWER |
10.47
|
42.30
|
-75.20%
|
43 / 10
|
| KOUTONS |
21.70
|
86.20
|
-74.80%
|
86 / 18
|
| NCC LIMITED |
36.65
|
135.00
|
-72.90%
|
152 / 37
|
| JET AIRWAYS |
247.55
|
875.00
|
-71.70%
|
891 / 224
|
| JAI CORP LTD |
69.65
|
243.55
|
-71.40%
|
244 / 69
|
| HDIL |
65.90
|
217.50
|
-69.70%
|
218 / 65
|
| BSE SENSEX |
15858
|
19735
|
-19.60%
|
20,622 / 15,716
|
| S&P CNX NIFTY |
4756
|
5947
|
-20.00%
|
6,177 / 4,708
|
Long Term is the mantra:
If you stay for long term your chances of loosing money will be reduced substantially. Patience is always rewarded. Below chart tells the whole story of the Indian stock market. If you stay above 10 year period your annualized returns will be above 15% (Sure, I hope you stick to our rule no:1 staying with quality stocks ) and your risk of capital erosion is totally eliminated.
As per income tax assessment or calculations 1 year is a long term and that wont attract any capital gains tax. But most of the investors fail to make capital gains in a year and the following table tells us 11 out of 32 years are loss making years in the capital market and even that risk continues if you stay in the market 5 years or so. If the investor extends his time horizon to much long period his risk levels comes down substantially and when the investor opts for very long term like10 to 15 years or more risk is almost eliminated.
Pledge Shares by promoters acts like time bombs in Bearish Times:
The period from 1993 to 2003 is worst for the Indian stock market and also for people who involved in it. Biggest victims are almost all NBFC companies; Stock broking firms, Morgan Stanley mutual fund, UTI, and GTB. I can fairly assume that the same will repeat every time market crashes, In coming bearish times pledge shares by promoters act like time bombs and destroys promoters and share holders wealth. Recent example is KSOIL which fell to Rs.7 from Rs.50. Never invest in the companies if promoter shares pledged, unless they are very reliable like Tata Group.
The following table tells how the long term investor has an edge over short term player:
% figures are average annual returns if one stays for that long period.
|
No
|
YEAR ending
Mar’31
|
SENSEX
|
1-YEAR
|
3-YEAR
|
5-YEAR
|
10-YEAR
|
15-YEAR
|
20-YEAR
|
|
0
|
1979
|
100
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
1980
|
129
|
29%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2
|
1981
|
173
|
35%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3
|
1982
|
217
|
26%
|
30%
|
|
|
|
|
|
4
|
1983
|
212
|
-3%
|
18%
|
|
|
|
|
|
5
|
1984
|
245
|
16%
|
12%
|
20%
|
|
|
|
|
6
|
1985
|
354
|
44%
|
18%
|
22%
|
|
|
|
|
7
|
1986
|
574
|
62%
|
39%
|
27%
|
|
|
|
|
8
|
1987
|
510
|
-11%
|
28%
|
19%
|
|
|
|
|
9
|
1988
|
398
|
-22%
|
4%
|
13%
|
|
|
|
|
10
|
1989
|
714
|
79%
|
8%
|
24%
|
22%
|
|
|
|
11
|
1990
|
781
|
9%
|
15%
|
17%
|
20%
|
|
|
|
12
|
1991
|
1168
|
50%
|
43%
|
15%
|
21%
|
|
|
|
13
|
1992
|
4285
|
267%
|
82%
|
53%
|
35%
|
|
|
|
14
|
1993
|
2281
|
-47%
|
43%
|
42%
|
27%
|
|
|
|
15
|
1994
|
3779
|
66%
|
48%
|
40%
|
31%
|
27%
|
|
|
16
|
1995
|
3261
|
-14%
|
-9%
|
33%
|
25%
|
24%
|
|
|
17
|
1996
|
3367
|
3%
|
14%
|
24%
|
19%
|
22%
|
|
|
18
|
1997
|
3361
|
0%
|
-4%
|
-5%
|
21%
|
20%
|
|
|
19
|
1998
|
3893
|
16%
|
6%
|
11%
|
26%
|
21%
|
|
|
20
|
1999
|
3740
|
-4%
|
4%
|
0%
|
18%
|
20%
|
20%
|
|
21
|
2000
|
5001
|
34%
|
14%
|
9%
|
20%
|
19%
|
20%
|
|
22
|
2001
|
3604
|
-28%
|
-3%
|
1%
|
12%
|
13%
|
16%
|
|
23
|
2002
|
3468
|
-4%
|
-2%
|
1%
|
-2%
|
14%
|
15%
|
|
24
|
2003
|
3049
|
-12%
|
-15%
|
-5%
|
3%
|
15%
|
14%
|
|
25
|
2004
|
5528
|
81%
|
15%
|
8%
|
4%
|
15%
|
17%
|
|
26
|
2005
|
6492
|
17%
|
23%
|
5%
|
7%
|
15%
|
16%
|
|
27
|
2006
|
11280
|
74%
|
55%
|
26%
|
13%
|
16%
|
16%
|
|
28
|
2007
|
13072
|
16%
|
33%
|
30%
|
15%
|
8%
|
18%
|
|
29
|
2008
|
15644
|
20%
|
34%
|
39%
|
15%
|
14%
|
20%
|
|
30
|
2009
|
9708
|
-38%
|
-5%
|
12%
|
10%
|
7%
|
14%
|
|
31
|
2010
|
17527
|
80%
|
11%
|
22%
|
13%
|
12%
|
17%
|
|
32
|
2011
|
19445
|
11%
|
8%
|
11%
|
18%
|
13%
|
15%
|
|
Probability of Loss
|
11/32
|
6/30
|
3/28
|
1/23
|
0/18
|
0/13
|
|
Avg.return
|
27%
|
19%
|
18%
|
17%
|
16%
|
17%
|
|
Avg.return+Div Yield
|
29%
|
21%
|
20%
|
19%
|
18%
|
19%
|
Benchmark index SENSEX has started in the year 1979 with base level 100. When we compiled all the data from the March’ 1979 to March’2011, found some interesting points which are discussed below:
1. Risk can be totally avoided if you are a long term investor.
2. 17% + Returns are assured if you stay for more than 10 years, so one can beat the inflation easily.
3. Dividends are added advantage for the long term player.
4. Because you are a long term player your returns are tax free.
What is the game plan now for investing:
1. Be a long term player.
2. Stick to Quality stocks. Unable to find or confused to find some just invest in Index ETFs.
3. Wait for the dips, allocate more funds when the Index PE trading low and less if Index PE is more.
4. Never take a loan for your investments, because even long term investor getting only 17% -19% returns. So most of the returns will be taken away by the interest component.
If you are willing take the advantage from market, must be a long term player with a common sense approach. One must always remember THE RULE for the investment game “Preserve your capital at all the times” and there is no welfare plan for the people who lose in the stock market.
|
Sr. No.
|
Name of the issue
|
Issue Price
|
Date of
|
|
Listing
|
|
1
|
Precision Pipes and Profiles Company Limited |
150
|
11-Jan-08
|
|
2
|
PORWAL AUTO COMPONENTS LIMITED |
75
|
*
|
|
3
|
MANAKSIA LIMITED |
160
|
08-Jan-08
|
|
4
|
ARIES AGRO LIMITED |
130
|
11-Jan-08
|
|
5
|
BRIGADE ENTERPRISES LIMITED |
390
|
31-Dec-07
|
|
6
|
Transformers And Rectifiers (India) Limited |
465
|
28-Dec-07
|
|
7
|
BGR ENERGY SYSTEMS LIMITED |
480
|
03-Jan-08
|
|
8
|
ECLERX SERVICES LIMITED |
315
|
31-Dec-07
|
|
9
|
JYOTHY LABORATORIES LIMITED |
690
|
19-Dec-07
|
|
10
|
KAUSHALYA INFRASTRUCTURE |
60
|
14-Dec-07
|
|
11
|
KOLTE PATIL DEVELOPERS LIMITED |
145
|
13-Dec-07
|
|
12
|
RENAISSANCE JEWELLERY LIMITED |
150
|
12-Dec-07
|
|
13
|
EDELWEISS CAPITAL LIMITED |
825
|
12-Dec-07
|
|
14
|
MundraPortand Special Economic Zone |
440
|
27-Nov-07
|
|
15
|
EMPEE DISTILLERIES LIMITED |
400
|
26-Nov-07
|
|
16
|
Religare Enterprises Limited |
185
|
21-Nov-07
|
|
17
|
BARAK VALLEY CEMENTS LIMITED |
42
|
23-Nov-07
|
|
18
|
SVPCL LTD |
42
|
*
|
|
19
|
Maytas Infra Limited |
370
|
25-Oct-07
|
|
20
|
Supreme Infrastructure India Limited |
108
|
18-Oct-07
|
|
21
|
Koutons Retail India Limited |
415
|
12-Oct-07
|
|
22
|
Consolidated Construction Consortium |
510
|
15-Oct-07
|
|
23
|
Kaveri Seed Company Limited |
170
|
04-Oct-07
|
|
24
|
Dhanus Technologies Limited |
295
|
17-Oct-07
|
|
25
|
Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd. |
52
|
05-Oct-07
|
|
26
|
IT PEOPLE (INDIA) LTD |
*
|
*
|
|
27
|
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited |
825
|
11-Sep-07
|
|
28
|
Indowind Energy Limited |
65
|
14-Sep-07
|
|
29
|
Magnum Ventures Limited |
30
|
20-Sep-07
|
|
30
|
SEL Manufacturing Company Limited |
90
|
21-Aug-07
|
|
31
|
Asian Granito India Limited |
97
|
23-Aug-07
|
|
32
|
TAKE Solutions Limited |
730
|
27-Aug-07
|
|
33
|
K.P.R. Mill Limited |
225
|
28-Aug-07
|
|
34
|
Purvankara Projects Limited |
400
|
30-Aug-07
|
|
35
|
Central Bank ofIndia |
102
|
21-Aug-07
|
|
36
|
IVR Prime Urban Developers Limited |
550
|
16-Aug-07
|
|
37
|
Omnitech Infosolutions Limited |
105
|
14-Aug-07
|
|
38
|
Zylog Systems Limited |
350
|
17-Aug-07
|
|
39
|
Omaxe Limited |
310
|
09-Aug-07
|
|
40
|
Alpa Laboratories Limited |
68
|
06-Aug-07
|
|
41
|
Simplex Projects Limited |
185
|
03-Aug-07
|
|
42
|
Everonn Systems India Limited |
140
|
01-Aug-07
|
|
43
|
Allied Digital Services Limited |
190
|
25-Jul-07
|
|
44
|
Bharat Earth Movers Limited |
1075
|
05-Nov-03
|
|
45
|
HDIL |
500
|
24-Jul-07
|
|
46
|
Suryachakra Power Corporation Limited |
20
|
*
|
|
47
|
Ankit Metal & Power Limited |
36
|
*
|
|
48
|
ICICI Bank Limited |
940
|
*
|
|
49
|
Roman Tarmat Limited |
175
|
09-Jul-07
|
|
50
|
DLF Limited |
525
|
05-Jul-07
|
|
51
|
Vishal Retail Limited |
270
|
04-Jul-07
|
|
52
|
Nelcast Limited |
219
|
27-Jun-07
|
|
53
|
Meghmani Organics Limited |
19
|
28-Jun-07
|
|
54
|
Decolight Ceramics Limited |
54
|
19-Jun-07
|
|
55
|
Time Technoplast Limited |
315
|
13-Jun-07
|
|
56
|
Nitin Fire Protection Industries Limited |
190
|
05-Jun-07
|
|
57
|
Asahi Songwon Colors Limited |
*
|
29-Aug-11
|
|
58
|
Insecticides (India) Limited |
115
|
30-May-07
|
|
59
|
Binani Cement Limited |
75
|
28-May-07
|
|
60
|
MIC Electronics Limited |
150
|
30-May-07
|
|
61
|
Bhagwati Banquets & Hotels Limited |
40
|
17-May-07
|
|
62
|
Fortis Healthcare Limited |
108
|
09-May-07
|
|
63
|
Ammana Bio Pharma Limited |
*
|
*
|
|
64
|
Advanta India Limited |
640
|
19-Apr-07
|
|
65
|
ICRA Limited |
330
|
13-Apr-07
|
|
66
|
Orbit Corporation Limited |
110
|
12-Apr-07
|
|
67
|
Gremach Infrastructure Equipments |
86
|
*
|
|
68
|
Abhishek Mills Limited |
100
|
19-Mar-07
|
|
69
|
Tubeknit Fashions Limited |
*
|
*
|
|
70
|
Page Industries Limited |
360
|
16-Mar-07
|
|
71
|
Raj Television Network Limited |
257
|
16-Mar-07
|
|
72
|
AMD Metplast Limited |
75
|
19-Mar-07
|
|
73
|
Vijayeswari Textiles Limited |
100
|
*
|
|
74
|
Idea Cellular Limited |
75
|
09-Mar-07
|
|
75
|
Evinix Accessories Limited |
120
|
07-Mar-07
|
|
76
|
Mudra Lifestyle Limited |
90
|
09-Mar-07
|
|
77
|
Oriental Trimex Limited |
48
|
07-Mar-07
|
|
78
|
MindTree Consulting Limited |
425
|
07-Mar-07
|
|
79
|
Broadcast Initiatives Limited |
120
|
07-Mar-07
|
|
80
|
Indus Fila Limited |
170
|
08-Mar-07
|
|
81
|
Euro Ceramics Limited |
165
|
09-Mar-07
|
|
82
|
Indian Bank |
91
|
01-Mar-07
|
|
83
|
C & C Constructions Limited |
291
|
26-Feb-07
|
|
84
|
SMS Pharmaceuticals Limited |
380
|
28-Feb-07
|
|
85
|
Power Finance Corporation Limited |
85
|
23-Feb-07
|
|
86
|
Transwarranty Finance Limited |
52
|
26-Feb-07
|
|
87
|
Firstsource Solutions Limited |
64
|
22-Feb-07
|
|
88
|
Redington (India) Limited |
113
|
15-Feb-07
|
|
89
|
Cinemax India Limited |
155
|
14-Feb-07
|
|
90
|
Technocraft Industries (India) Limited |
105
|
12-Feb-07
|
|
91
|
House of Pearl Fashions Limited |
550
|
15-Feb-07
|
|
92
|
Akruti Nirman Limited |
540
|
07-Feb-07
|
|
93
|
Global Broadcast News Limited |
250
|
08-Feb-07
|
|
94
|
Pochiraju Industries Limited |
30
|
09-Feb-07
|
|
95
|
Autoline Industries Limited |
225
|
31-Jan-07
|
* Issue cancelled due to poor response / bad market condition